Mississippi's House districts
None of Mississippi's four House seats is rated competitive. The model starts from each district's 2024 presidential margin and moves it 0.8 points for each point of national shift since 2024.
MS-1 R favored
Incumbent: Trent Kelly (R)
On the ballot: Trent Kelly (R); Cliff Johnson (D); Johnny Baucom (L)
Ratings: Cook Solid R; Sabato Safe R; IE Solid R
| Past race | District margin |
|---|---|
| Gov 2019 (2012-era) | R+19.0 |
| Pres 2020 (2012-era) | R+31.0 |
| Sen 2020 (2012-era) | R+22.0 |
| Gov 2023 (2022 map) | R+17.3 |
| Pres 2024 (2022 map) | R+37.0 |
| Sen 2024 (2022 map) | R+38.0 |
MS-2 D favored
Incumbent: Bennie Thompson (D)
On the ballot: Bennie Thompson (D); Ron Eller (R); Bennie Foster (I)
Ratings: Cook Solid D; Sabato Safe D; IE Solid D
| Past race | District margin |
|---|---|
| Gov 2019 (2012-era) | D+35.0 |
| Pres 2020 (2012-era) | D+29.0 |
| Sen 2020 (2012-era) | D+33.0 |
| Gov 2023 (2022 map) | D+35.9 |
| Pres 2024 (2022 map) | D+20.4 |
| Sen 2024 (2022 map) | D+16.0 |
MS-3 R favored
Incumbent: Michael Guest (R)
On the ballot: Michael Guest (R); Michael Chiaradio (D); Erik Kiehle (L)
Ratings: Cook Solid R; Sabato Safe R; IE Solid R
| Past race | District margin |
|---|---|
| Gov 2019 (2012-era) | R+9.0 |
| Pres 2020 (2012-era) | R+21.0 |
| Sen 2020 (2012-era) | R+17.0 |
| Gov 2023 (2022 map) | R+12.6 |
| Pres 2024 (2022 map) | R+29.2 |
| Sen 2024 (2022 map) | R+32.0 |
MS-4 R favored
Incumbent: Mike Ezell (R)
On the ballot: Mike Ezell (R); Jeffrey Hulum III (D); Carl Boyanton (I)
Ratings: Cook Solid R; Sabato Safe R; IE Solid R
| Past race | District margin |
|---|---|
| Gov 2019 (2012-era) | R+28.0 |
| Pres 2020 (2012-era) | R+38.0 |
| Sen 2020 (2012-era) | R+29.0 |
| Gov 2023 (2022 map) | R+26.3 |
| Pres 2024 (2022 map) | R+42.5 |
| Sen 2024 (2022 map) | R+44.0 |
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