Forecast · model estimates, not certainties
Forecast and scenarios
Move the sliders to change turnout and the national environment. The statewide margin, win chances, county map and "counties that decide it" table all update. Nothing is saved or sent anywhere.
Projected margin
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Win chance
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Win chance
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90% range
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D even R
Counties that decide it
The largest counties projected within 10 points under the current settings.
| County | Projected | Votes |
|---|
Headline numbers
| Race | Projected margin | 90% range | Model win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate (Hyde-Smith) | R+11.7 | R+0.1 to R+23.2 | 95% |
| U.S. House MS-1 | R+28.7 | R+15.5 to R+41.9 | >99% |
| U.S. House MS-2 | D+28.7 | D+41.9 to D+15.5 | >99% |
| U.S. House MS-3 | R+20.9 | R+7.7 to R+34.1 | >99% |
| U.S. House MS-4 | R+34.2 | R+21.0 to R+47.4 | >99% |
| 2027 Governor: Strong Democrat (Presley/Hood-level) | R+4.2 | D+12.2 to R+20.6 | 66% R |
| 2027 Governor: Mid-tier Democrat | R+11.3 | D+5.1 to R+27.8 | 87% R |
| 2027 Governor: Low-profile Democrat | R+18.5 | R+2.1 to R+35.0 | 97% R |
| 2027 Lieutenant Governor (open) | R+20.8 | R+4.4 to R+37.2 | 98% R |
| 2027 Attorney General (open) | R+15.9 | D+0.5 to R+32.4 | 94% R |
| 2027 Secretary of State (open) | R+18.3 | R+1.9 to R+34.8 | 97% R |
Turnout sensitivity
| Relative Black turnout | Senate 2026 | Governor 2027 (strong Dem) |
|---|---|---|
| -30% | R+25.2 | R+17.6 |
| -20% | R+20.3 | R+12.7 |
| -10% | R+15.8 | R+8.3 |
| +0% | R+11.7 | R+4.2 |
| +10% | R+7.8 | R+0.4 |
| +20% | R+4.2 | D+3.2 |
| +30% | R+0.9 | D+6.5 |
What could change this
- Turnout composition is the biggest lever in the Senate race. Use the slider above.
- Polling is thin and one-sided. A nonpartisan public poll would move this model more than anything else.
- Pinkins (I) has polled at 6% to 7%. The model assumes he finishes at about half his poll share (3.5%).
- National mood: the generic ballot is D+8.2 to D+9.9 across averages. The model uses D+8.9.
- Money: Hyde-Smith had $1.40M cash on hand to Colom's $1.02M as of Oct. 14 (FEC).
- Absentee voting: 56,049 ballots had been returned as of Oct. 26 (SOS). In-person absentee voting ends Oct. 31.
- 2027: the Republican primary field (White's reported Nov. 9 launch, Hosemann's decision), who Democrats nominate, and the majority-plus-runoff rule.
- Not modeled: weather, Medicaid expansion and rural-hospital politics, and redistricting.
Sources: Magnolia Margins forecast model (forecast.py) · Public polls as released by sponsors; list on the Senate page · Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections · Kalshi and Polymarket prices, Oct 30 2026 snapshot · U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2019–2023 5-year, table B02001 · Federal Election Commission, filings through Oct 14 2026 · MS SOS absentee report, Oct 26 2026. Data as of 2026-10-30.
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