Clay County
Clay County voted D+10.4 for president in 2024, which is 33.3 points more Democratic than the state. Black residents are 60.1% of the population (ACS).
Senate 2026 projection
D+19.7
Model, statewide R+11.7
Gov 2027 (strong Dem) projection
D+27.7
Model, a year out
Senate swing 2020→2024
+13.8
Positive = toward R
Reeves gap
18.2 pts
Trump 2024 minus Reeves 2023; #38 of 82
Election history
Show all 12 elections, 2018–2024, county vs. state
| Election | County | State | County vs state | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 Senate: Wicker (R) v. Baria (D) | D+8.9 | R+19.0 | -28.0 | 7,610 |
| 2018 Senate special runoff: Hyde-Smith (R) v. Espy (D) | D+24.1 | R+7.3 | -31.4 | 8,001 |
| 2019 Governor: Reeves (R) v. Hood (D) | D+22.6 | R+5.1 | -27.7 | 7,298 |
| 2019 Lt. Governor: Hosemann (R) v. Hughes (D) | D+9.3 | R+20.0 | -29.3 | 7,158 |
| 2019 Attorney General: Fitch (R) v. Collins (D) | D+16.0 | R+15.7 | -31.6 | 7,237 |
| 2020 President: Trump (R) v. Biden (D) | D+16.3 | R+16.5 | -32.9 | 10,189 |
| 2020 Senate: Hyde-Smith (R) v. Espy (D) | D+21.1 | R+10.0 | -31.0 | 10,286 |
| 2023 Governor: Reeves (R) v. Presley (D) | D+28.6 | R+3.2 | -31.8 | 7,126 |
| 2023 Lt. Governor: Hosemann (R) v. Grover (D) | D+9.7 | R+21.5 | -31.2 | 7,026 |
| 2023 Attorney General: Fitch (R) v. Kemp Martin (D) | D+12.4 | R+16.1 | -28.6 | 7,008 |
| 2024 President: Trump (R) v. Harris (D) | D+10.4 | R+22.9 | -33.3 | 9,057 |
| 2024 Senate: Wicker (R) v. Pinkins (D) | D+7.2 | R+25.6 | -32.8 | 9,114 |
Margins are Republican minus Democrat, as a share of all votes cast. Turnout in the 2018 runoff was 22.2% lower than in the 2020 Senate race.
2024 presidential margin; Clay outlined
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