The Reeves gap: why the 2027 governor's race is closer than federal races suggest
Mississippi's federal elections and its governor's races are telling very different stories.
In 2024, Donald Trump carried the state by 22.9 points and Sen. Roger Wicker won re-election by 25.6. A year earlier, Gov. Tate Reeves beat Brandon Presley by 3.2 points, down from 5.1 against Jim Hood in 2019. Reeves is term-limited, so 2027 is an open race, and that gap is the most important number for anyone handicapping it.
Reeves ran behind Trump everywhere
Comparing Reeves' 2023 county margins with Trump's 2024 margins, Reeves ran behind in all 82 counties. The average gap was 17.5 points.
The gap was smallest in Claiborne (6.4 points) and DeSoto (7.3), followed by Holmes, Wilkinson and Lauderdale.
The gap was largest in the rural northeast:
| County | Reeves 2023 | Trump 2024 | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prentiss | R+33.2 | R+66.0 | 32.8 |
| Tishomingo | R+48.2 | R+78.9 | 30.7 |
| Monroe | R+6.8 | R+35.9 | 29.1 |
| Itawamba | R+51.3 | R+80.0 | 28.7 |
| Chickasaw | D+13.8 | R+13.7 | 27.5 |
This is Presley's home region, and he had represented it on the Public Service Commission. A Democrat with real crossover appeal in northeast Mississippi can cut Republican margins there by more than half.
Strong candidates, not a Democratic trend
Down-ballot statewide races show that this is about candidates, not party. In 2023, Republicans running for lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, auditor, agriculture commissioner and insurance commissioner won by an average of 17.8 points. In 2019, the average was 19.1.
Hood in 2019 and Presley in 2023 each ran about 14 points ahead of their party's down-ballot candidates. Those were well-known, well-funded Democrats who had already won statewide or regional races.
What this means for 2027
Our early 2027 estimates depend almost entirely on who the Democrats nominate:
- Strong Democrat (Presley- or Hood-level): about R+4.2, roughly a 66% Republican win chance.
- Mid-tier Democrat: about R+11.3, around 87%.
- Low-profile Democrat: about R+18.5, the down-ballot baseline, around 97%.
These are model estimates a year out, with wide ranges. The Republican field is already crowded: Attorney General Lynn Fitch, Agriculture Commissioner Andy Gipson and former House Speaker Philip Gunn have declared. Auditor Shad White's launch has been reported for Nov. 9, and Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann is still undecided. Priscilla Williams-Till has announced on the Democratic side.
Two structural factors also matter. Mississippi now requires a majority to win the general election, with a runoff on Nov. 30, 2027 if no one gets one. A well-funded independent candidacy, such as a possible run by businessman Tommy Duff, would make a runoff more likely.
Explore the gap county by county on the map, or switch the forecast to the 2027 governor scenarios.
Sources: Mississippi Secretary of State certified results (2019, 2023 statewide; 2024 federal); Wikipedia county tables; candidate fields from Mississippi Today, Magnolia Tribune, WTVA and Ballotpedia as of Oct. 30, 2026.
Get the Mississippi numbers in your inbox
A free weekly email with forecast updates, county shifts and new analysis, plus election-night alerts. Nonpartisan and data-first.